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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.